A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
